طبق دادههای منتشر شده توسط دفتر عملیات کمیسیون توسعه و اصلاحات ملی، تولید فولاد خام ملی 1032.79 میلیون تن در 2021، یک سال-در سال- بوده است. {4}}کاهش سالیانه 3 درصدی و یک ساله-البته-افزایش سالانه 5.2 درصدی در سال 2020؛ تولید فولاد 1336.67 میلیون تن بود که در یک سال{13}}-افزایش 0.6 درصدی داشت و نرخ رشد 7.1 واحد درصد در سال-در{20}}سال کاهش یافت. تولید کک 464.46 میلیون تن بود که در سال 2020 کاهش 2.2 درصدی-به{24}}سالانه و 0.04 درصدی افزایش یک ساله-سالانه-سالانه داشت. تولید فروآلیاژ 34.76 میلیون تن بود که در مقایسه با سال قبل 4.4 درصد کاهش داشت که نسبت به سال قبل 1.7 واحد درصد افزایش داشت. آمار گمرک نشان میدهد که در سال 2021، صادرات فولاد 66.9 میلیون تن بوده است،-سالانه-افزایش سالانه 24.6 درصد، و واردات 14.27 میلیون تن در سال-در سال{{49} 50}}کاهش سالانه 29.5 درصدی؛ واردات سنگ آهن 1124.32 میلیون تن بود که نسبت به سال قبل 3.9 درصد کاهش داشت.
In 2021, the crude steel output of the iron and steel industry was high before and low after, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease. In the first half of 2021, the iron ore price continued to rise, and the oscillation fell in the second half of 2021. In 2021, the steel price fluctuated upward, and the high correction began in the fourth quarter. China's total steel export in 2021 was higher than that in 2020, and fell month by month in the second half of the year. Affected by the overall improvement of the national economy, the rise of global commodity prices and other factors, the benefits of the iron and steel industry showed a trend of high before low in 2021, with the highest benefits in history. Data show that in 2021, China's key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises had a cumulative operating income of 6.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7 percent ; The total accumulated profit was 352.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.7 percent , a record high; The sales profit margin reached 5.08 percent , 0.85 percentage points higher than that in 2020.
In 2022, the macro policy requires "stability at the head and seeking progress in stability", and the domestic steel market consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The relevant person of China Iron and Steel Association pointed out that the raw material price fluctuates at a high level, and the high-cost production trend of steel continues. It is expected that the steel price will be high before and low after 2022, and the average price of ordinary hot-rolled steel will be lower than that in 2021.
A relevant person from China Iron and Steel Association said that the release of China's iron and steel output in 2022 will still be subject to certain constraints. It is expected that China's crude steel output in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021. Considering the influence of factors such as peak shifting production in autumn and winter in the first quarter, the annual output may show a trend of low before high.
In 2022, the export volume of steel will decline year-on-year, and the import volume will remain relatively high. It is estimated that China's steel export will be about 60 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of about 10 percent ; The import of steel was about 14.5 million tons, basically unchanged year-on-year. China has established relatively stable billet import channels in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions through international steel production capacity cooperation, which will support China's billet import volume to remain high. It is estimated that China's billet import volume will be about 15 million tons in 2022, an increase of about 9.3 percent over 2021.
تقاضای بازار داخلی فولاد روند رشد ثابتی را حفظ خواهد کرد. با توجه به سرمایه گذاری در املاک و مستغلات و سرمایه گذاری زیرساختی، انتظار می رود مصرف فولاد خام در بازار داخلی در سال 2022 حدود 1 میلیارد تن باشد که نسبت به 990 میلیون تن در سال 2021 افزایش 1.6 درصدی دارد.
China's iron and steel production enterprises will still be in the trend of high cost operation. It is estimated that China's steel output in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021. With the further recovery of the world economy, overseas steel production will continue to rise and promote the growth of demand for steel raw materials. However, the new output of major international ore suppliers is limited, and the global iron ore supply and demand is generally tight.
To sum up, in 2022, China's steel output will be low before and high after, and the market demand will be high before and low after. The high point of steel price will appear in the first half of the year. The second half of the year is dominated by oscillation adjustment, and the average price of ordinary steel in the whole year will be lower than that in 2021.
